Weekly watchlist for 9/28/09

Hello boys and girls, another day, another dollar! Sorry for no Fryday update...I took a long weekend and only traded for 30 min Fryday. (also why I didn't get this weeks watchlist out til today)

Anyways jumping right into things...there are a lot of really good setup I ran across on my scans, so I'm just gonna post a link to most of my charts...so until I can get them to hyperlink your gonna just have to copy and paste in your browser(still kind of new to this blog thing, but I'm figuring it out). And just a side note...we've seen selling toward the end of the day the past couple days, this hasn't happened in quite some time...something to keep an eye on.

The four main sectors that seemed to show up in my scans were the semis, ag's, oil and clothing/retail sectors. Also something new to the blog...for all you penny traders...I'm gonna do a separate pennies watch list.

LONGS

DBA-Trendline going all the way back to December of last year, nice wedge pattern, if you can grab it under 24.50 its a great buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=210451a9-2f99-481f-aa32-965f041bf6e5

MOS-Inverted head and shoulders...could turn into a channel trade...pulling back to good support, stochastics look good for a nice bounce. I think anything under 49 is a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b3225bab-09b9-46cc-91fa-3e9c929d789d

TRV-This was on my personal list last week, and would have been my #1 if I could have got it out on Sunday...but my head just hurt to bad from all the poison I drank Saturday. Anyway I still like it for a move higher.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8452be43-f04a-4ee9-a60b-20bf60e16b28

CCJ-Has it's trendline from the March lows still holding...and its sitting on it right now, stochastics pulling back, MACD pulling back...nibble at 27

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d07370ab-5d3f-4852-8e93-e5ba2417822d

JOSB-Love this one...we could have a double trend line bounce, stochastics, MACD both pulling back.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ad1b86b7-24de-4697-84a1-bb7379d68b6a

WFR-It's not ready yet...but if you can let it pull down to 16 or under I'd be all over it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6dadc69d-9b2f-4d97-a8d0-9388773cf4eb

GGG-Also like this one a lot...also not ready yet...let it come down to it's 50 EMA...then nail it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=21d5ffce-d0de-4e7d-864f-3b5b5b5e7f9f

WFT-Great channel trade happening in this one...bounced off the lower trendline today, if it pulls back to under 21 its a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e9e3148d-7ce2-42e4-a1bf-a8e90a71505a

ETE-I came up with my own pattern...I call it...the parallelogram...(this is what happens when you chart for 8 hours straight)

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=33802998-7098-4b15-b6b4-7cc5fcfa684e

AU-Channel trade anyone?

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=9697d7c8-8777-4aa8-a5e7-1156857bb8ae

LII-Another channel trade

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d5eda91a-ac8e-4ca7-98c9-903c9d524a74

TBL-Falling wedge...maybe getting ready to break out.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=01c15246-b08e-412a-845b-c37071c82793

TXRH-Like this one a lot...double trendline bounce?? If you can get it at 10...good work

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=892dab08-385a-4915-99c7-e0998e6e538b

CAKE-Rockstar channel trade if I've ever seen one

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e4d35453-ab35-4ee2-9118-bcfc278a6922

My eyes are killing me...im gonna finish tomorrow

Looking at Thursday

Well my friends...its days like today why you always want to have shorts and longs. The market did almost exactly what I thought it would do today...that being said...I have no clue what tomorrow has in store for us. I wouldnt be surprised to see a gap up or down...but if we do gap down (which is what I'm leaning towards) I'll be looking to fad it. We have great support at 1050, and 1039 on the SPX minis, and I'll be watching these areas close for long scalps and ES trades. I will be trading on the light side tomorrow, and probably just managing my trades im already in.

A little position update....
I added to my DE long at 45.50...still in the pattern...still love it.

Added to my PSA short at 79.20, everyone had all week to grab this one, looks good to go lower

Still short BA, not adding though

Still short SYK, didnt add

Got out of the rest on my CLX at 59 on some weight...awesome trade!!!

Still holding C...dont really like the action in it today though

Looking forward to tomorrow 9/23/09

Wow what another great day in the markets!!! Can anyone believe that CLX trade? I couldn't, I guess a thank you is in order to Mr. P&G! I took half off today at 59.50 +2 on 500 shares, gonna let the rest ride til sometime tomorrow. The only other trade from the watchlist I made is I sold all my shares of DE at 47 + 2.5 only 200 shares, but I got back in at 46. Still holding everything else, I think were in some really good positions!

Tomorrow we have the FOMC meeting...my take on it...I think we drift up until the meeting, spike and take out the SPX highs, then probably sell off 10 or so points to end the day. I will probably be looking to unload some longs if we take out the highs, and grab some new shorts (half postions though). If we start to get real range bound like we did today, I'm gonna do some heavy ES trading leading up to the meeting. I will give a midday update tomorrow before the meeting.

Watchlist for the week of 9/21/09

Because I felt bad for not getting my watchlist out last night...I went through the entire S&P 500 looking for good set-ups, and came across 33 that really look good to me one way or the other. We should have a "drifty" market until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, pretty similar to the day we had today. I except the SPX to drift between the 1050 to 1075 range the next two days. A little update on some of postions:

FSLR-added 50 more shares short, avg. now 155, I have a hard stop at 161 and will not move it.

ABX-covered the last half of my position at 35.75, +3.25...perfect trade

MTXX- It popped big today just like I thought it would, sold everything at 6.10, +.40, Looking to get back in around 5.70 level.

C- got back in this am, 4.30...gonna hold and see what happens

On to the watchlist....

A long that I really like this week is CLX, Clorox Co. It's got a nice falling wedge pattern, good support around the 57 area, stochastics are turning up, and MACD is going to get a bullish cross soon. I'm in it at 57.40.



A short I like is PSA, Public Storage. It has formed a nice double top in at 79.50, with stochastics turning down, and MACD is at an extreme level. I'm short at 77, target is 72, stop loss just above the highs.



Another long I like is GLW, Corning. Tech was really strong today, and this one has a great trendline going all the way back to May. If you can get this one under 15 I think its a great buy.



SYK, Stryker Corp, I like as a short, its been trading outside its top Bollinger Bands for almost two weeks, time for it to come down to Earth (just a little bit if nothing else) it's been getting some upgrades, but it just looks toppy up here, I like the back to back red chandles its printed. I'm short at 47.50, first target 45.



A long that I started to nibble on today is DE, Deere. It's made a nice inverted head and shoalders, and if it can ever get through this 47.50 area, then it's off to the races. Started half a postion at 44.50.



BA looks like a good short here, double top, been trading on its upper Bollinger Band for a couple days, stochastics are at extreme levels, looks like MACD has made a lower, low.

Sorry for no watchlist yesterday

Today, Friday is options ex day, a day that I really hate to trade on...I almost never do options ex days, and if I do it's only a couple of ES trades. A little update...

PALM...what a wild ride...I did cover half my short before they reported...just covered the other half just now..at 13.80 +1.20

FSLR...I may fry in this thing, but I'm gonna hold it over the weekend, I just think there tryin to hold it up so everyone that bought puts is gettin killed.

ABX...covered half my postion at 37 for +2...great trade...gonna let the other half ride over the weekend.

Speaking of a stock that I think is being held down for options ex is MTXX. Everyone and there moms bought calls on this thing...I think there just holding it down so all those calls are out of the money...I just picked up 500 shares at 5.70...this isnt a trade for weak of heart (just like FSLR) as it could crash at any second, but I like the risk reward here, 6.50 target, gonna hold over the weekend.

Well this was a hell of a first week on the blog! Made some good money...I'll be making a big watchlist for next week on Sunday so check back then, Happy Trading!

Midday update 9/17/09

Just a little update, took profits in SPG got out at 75, +9...out of RIMM at 84, +4, got in Citi this AM at 4.30, couldn't help it, had to take profits at 4.50, I'll be looking to probably re-enter on a pullback as chart is still setup nicely. I added to my ABX short at 39 again, probably gonna hold it til tomorrow,
and PALM....I just found out they report there earnings after the bell...probably gonna take half off before, hold half into earnings (which I dont recommend, because it's float is 40% short, and could fly if they beat) But its been a good week, so I like the gamble.

FSLR...got a f***ing upgrade this morning so it ripped and messed up a great short, but I'm stickin to my guns added 50 shares to my short at 156, average is 153.

CENX...ya...I dont know what to say about this one, chart was setup perfect, I am gonna start nibbling here around 11

And the Bull Rages On! Watchlist for 9/17/09

As one of my trading friends likes to say, "Where did all the top calling bears go....guess the bulls ate em!" TRADE THE DAMN TREND! THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND! Such simple concepts, yet I keep seeing all these people call the top. We have new highs on the year for the 6th day in row, and we still have another 30 or so points on the SPX to go until we have any resistance. We have a big data day tomorrow morning with Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Inital Jobs Claims at 8:30, with the Philly Fed at 10. My take, if the market wants an excuss to pullback tomorrow then these numbers should do the trick, but I think if we get any tiny bit of good news out of these numbers...FORGET ABOUT IT! I could very easily see a bunch of short covering, pushing the SPX up to around the 1090 area by FRYday. And for the five people that might have read my blog yesterday, your welcome for a perfect 4 for 4 almost pinpoint perfect entry on the entire watchlist. So without further adue, the watchlist for tomorrow:

Pick #1
I always like to be hedged...so we'll start with a short, I like a FSLR (First Solar) short here, not a full postion (I shorted 50 shares at the end of the day today, and will add either way tomorrow) It has a nice downtrend line around 147, and I think all the shorts have been fried in it, so now it will probably come down. I would cover if it got through its 200 day EMA which is around 155, but the odds of that are very slim. Target for this trade is 140 area(I figured out how to get my charts on here too)



Pick #2
CHL (China Mobile) Long. This isn't a fast mover, but its got a great trendline thats its bounced on five times and it just got a bullish MACD cross today. If you can get it around the 50.50 area, it's a buy.



Pick #3
C (Citigroup) Long. I know I know, I hate this company too, but we've had a very nice pullback to it's 50 EMA, and a nice downtrend line, the closer you can grab it to 4 the better. You might have to take a little pain, but I think it goes back to 5.



Pick #4
CENX (Century Aluminum) Long. Chart says it all...bullish MACD, bullish stochastics, closed over it 200 EMA...



I'm out for now, Im gonna try to add more later, I continue to be short PALM, and ABX, will be looking to take profits in SPG, and RIMM.

P.S. Looking for a pull back in basic services across the board and possible rotation into healthcare JNJ, PFE, AMGN all long bases ready to resume.

Watchlist for Wed. Sept. 16

What a market we have right now! New highs for the year on the SPX for the fifth day in row! Whats even better is that we dont really have any resistance on top of us until almost 1100, so until we get there, this is a buy the dip market! We did break a three day uptrend-line at the very end of day, and stochastics are very overbought on the hourly and daily SPX charts, but we have great support on/around 1039, so I'm looking for a pullback to this area to reenter long scalps, and adding to long swing tomorrow (but we probably wont get there, so any pullback im adding). As far as data is concerned we have the Consumer Price Index numbers coming out in the morning with market "experts" saying the core CPI will grow by .1% (which this is beyond me as to how it's going to be growing right now). Anyway for all you kids that didn't pass ECON 101, the CPI measures inflation, hence I think there could be a good trade in gold stocks tomorrow on the short side if the street doesn't like the CPI, but we'll get to that in a sec. So now for my first ever picks for tomorrow.....

-Gold futures have formed a bastard head and shoulders pattern...I like a short in gold...
Safe play: Long DGZ (double short gold future etf) around the 22 area, target 23.50
My play: Short ABX (Barrick Gold Corp) 39, target 36

-A stock I've been all over the past two months SPG (Simon Property Group) has just been on fire! This guy is in buy the dip mode, if it can pull back to anywhere around it's 20 ema, I'll be all over it

-PALM...what a turd of a company...the short on this one is kind of a crowded trade, but its got a very nice downtrend line that it tagged today on the heals of an upgrade (classic analysis that probably chased it and now trying to get out of it), if you can short it around the 15 area I think this is easy money

-RIMM...what a great company...it broke out of a B-E-A-UTIFUL wedge pattern last week...and I think it's going higher. It ran into earnings last quarter, it's doing it again, a no doubt buy the dip this week. 90 target

For all you ES traders out there...my go-to play the past couple weeks has been to fade whatever the street's knee jerk reaction is to data, so If we pop on the CPI numbers...let it run 4-5 candles, then short, just make sure you cover before the open or you could fry, same play visa-versa.

Well the PM stuff is kicking in so I'm calling it night, and first post. Lets ride this BULL!! (market)