Review of today 1/5/10

One of my New Years Resolutions was to get on this blog thing every night possible, Monday-Friday. I'm gonna try to get a review of what happened at the end of everyday, then in the mornings do a key levels/things to look for kind of post. So in saying that...here is today in review.

Well of course, we gapped up for like the 40th day in row...filled the gap during the opening swing...got bad news from the housing data...spiked down...then ran straight up to the highs of the day. I'm still mad at myself for missing a setup that I've seen a thousand times; pointed it out in the chart. We took out the overnight highs by like .50 or something, then price was rejected three times at the highs making a pretty easy short setup. Here it is at the top of the blog.

Interesting Day

I have to admit that I was a little unprepared for the low levels that we saw in the a.m. this morning, because I shorted the near lows only to watch it go against me faster then I could get my stop in, there was also a weird volume spike at 11:11 that I think was some kind of algo which accounted for the superhuman strenght the first half of the day. But I was just trading my plan...which called for a short under 1780, which we got in the overnight session and came pretty close to my downside target I gave last night (1755).

I ended up nailing a short on the high tick of the day, a level I also talked about yesterday as a major area (1786) only to end up covering it for a pitiful 2 points. Something that I have noticed the past couple trading days is that the area of 1768-1780 is an area that the market has trouble finding value in, and when 1780 is broken to the downside, and 1768 is broken to the upside, the market wants to find value in other areas moving quickly through this gap.

Pretty much same plan tomorrow...I do think we go higher because the DX (dollar) became pretty weak at the end of the day w/ what looked like a short sqeeuze on huge volume before the end of day today. And for the most part lower prices were quickly rejected.

1092 is a key area for the ES...under it short term bearish...above short term bullish

Here is a chart for the NQ...(up above)

Again if you want you can follow me on twitter...I made you 10.50 NQ points if you shadowed me on my live calls (sad to say I didn't even net that because of my early morning losses)

alright...back to basics

Ok, so I know its been like a year since my last blog post...but I've had a pretty big transformation of trading styles and trading vehicles. I pretty much only trade futures now a days...specifically the ES (S&P emini contract) and NQ (Nasdaq 100) contracts. If you are reading this and have no idea what these are, here is the Investopedia link to help you run down the basics.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/

In the past months I have done this overhall of styles for a couple reasons, but mainly trying to keep adding tools to the tool box, while trying to operate under K.I.S.S....

Thanks to the internet I have had the oppertunity/luck to watch and follow some of the best and biggest traders in the world. You wouldnt believe how a big a tool things such as Twitter/other traders blogs have become for me. Up until a couple months ago before I discovered these select few traders that I followed live day after day...just cutting the market to shreds...I now feel like I was trading w/ blinder on this whole time. The gift these guys gave me was something that I had never come across in my journey to becoming a truly great trader. They showed me how the big boys look at it...how the big boys hit it perfect almost everyday, the gift of auction theory, and market profile.

Now I'm not going to go into how all that works...but these tools have truly shown me the light. I'm still fighting the learning curve, but I continue to improve everyday. My profit have slowed down quiet a bit because of the learning curve, and having to be way more patient, but I'm really starting to feel like I know exactly what the market is doing, and wants to do, and slowly my p/l is coming around as well.

I am going to start posting charts again as well...and if your on Twitter and want to follow me, as I do call out some of my high probability trades live...my handle is TRUmav. As a legal thing too...futures trading is highly leveraged, and highly risky if you dont know what you are doing, so dont do it if you cant afford to lose it.

A quick run down of key levels for NQ tomorrow:

1780 is key support...break of that would probably give 1755-1750 in the coming days...but until it really breaks, have to play bounces off it.

1786-87 is important, it also acts as support/res...the last couple selloffs have come when we have broke this area.

1791.5-92 is key...anything above this is bullish, and I only take longs. After this level, I just watch the order flow to scale out of longs, and enter shorts.

On the ES...we still need to test the big 1122 area...and I will have my short orders ready...more ES levels later

Well well well

This markets ass must hurt from the beating I've been giving it...that didn't come out right...but Happy DOW 10K day!

I really hated not getting an update out yesterday...but the blog has to take a back seat during times like this...it's like I've been saying since the very first post...this is a buy the dip super bull market. Even Cramer and the people off fast money are probably doing ok. (Execpt the one jackass that continues to be short, don't really know how he still has any money but whatever)Throw a dart...everything is doing ok.

On a side note...if you look back at my rants from a couple weeks ago...you'll see my target of 1093 on the SPX was nailed on the f#$%ing dot today. I think the high for the day was 1093.17. It's amazing how support and resistance work isn't it. All you fundimental intelliletuals that call the market "a random walk"...eat my blog.

(Side, sidenote...I think we do crack 1093 tomorrow)

If we all look back and remember, mister Intel was what really kicked off this last leg up from 850 on the S&P. Everything in this market is still set to go higher, even though we have a 10% unemployment rate. The golden boy of Wall St. Goldman Sachs (pun intended) is reporting tomorrow morning, I expect nothing more then for them to blow it out. I'm loaded with calls on Goldman so I am a bit baised, but Goldman isn't going to let this market down...it's been the strongest stock in the market since July, and if they get beat down at all from earnings I'll be loading the boat. But I fully expect them at 200 or higher by weeks end. So goes Goldman, so goes the market...simple as that.

A little update on what im holding/got rid of...
Holding:
AMZN from 94...110 target
NCS from 2.77...4 target
RIMM from 65...80 target
UNH from 24.20...27 target
VZ from 28.90...31 target
WYNN from 66....70 target
XOM from 65.50...target hit probably takin if off tomorrow
C from 4.32...sold out today at 4.88
Sold INTC and CSCO at the open today
PALM is my only short at 17...probably gonna take it off tomrrow too
Holding too much Goldman probably...but I've got a nice core at 182 so Ive got some wiggle room
Also got back in one of my favorite stocks...SPG at 69...love the builders going forward.


I'm gonna try and get some charts out in the AM...I really like State Street (STT) to break out tomorrow too.

Update

WYNN, just broke out! Long at 70.15 big shares...lookin for .50

I know....

I know it's been a week from the last update and for that I'm sorry. I've been trading my tail off the past couple days and have taken the markets out to the wood shed. I'm gonna get straight to it today...two very easy plays...almost guarenteed...Goldman Sachs is going to 200 before they report, mark it, buy the dips or grab some 200 or 210 calls. RIMM...I've been loading the boat these past couple days and have an average of 65.45, buy this thing, and dont touch it, turn the screens off til it goes back to 80, because it is. A setup I've been looking for the past days are breakout plays...and I found a couple good ones.

One of my favorite setups this week and going forward is NCS...this thing is primed and ready. Nothing I don't like about it, easy double...just have to keep an eye on it because it pops huge but retraces pretty quickly

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6f2df996-bb93-4036-8048-bf97c1252e88

Another one I like is BMO. This thing is a loaded spring...you can wait for the breakout at 52, or get it on the lower trendline at 48ish.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c605b510-9007-4d65-badc-b64b33be1975

JBHT is also concolidating for a move higher....33.50 would be a breakout, 31.50 would be a good entry if you can get it there.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=937c248f-698c-4d63-bcdd-557d938b125b

Stocks I also still like, TXRH, HNZ, CAKE, FSS, PTR.

A couple shorts, I like DECK as a short anywhere around 85, WYNN around 75 (but if it breaks 75 cover and go long cus that will be a breakout. All the ag's have been pretty weak.

The thing I've been doing the past two weeks that have worked nicely is I'm net long (like 80%), then when I felt the market getting extended I'll take a ES short and just hold on to it to hedge myself.

Weekly watchlist for 9/28/09

Hello boys and girls, another day, another dollar! Sorry for no Fryday update...I took a long weekend and only traded for 30 min Fryday. (also why I didn't get this weeks watchlist out til today)

Anyways jumping right into things...there are a lot of really good setup I ran across on my scans, so I'm just gonna post a link to most of my charts...so until I can get them to hyperlink your gonna just have to copy and paste in your browser(still kind of new to this blog thing, but I'm figuring it out). And just a side note...we've seen selling toward the end of the day the past couple days, this hasn't happened in quite some time...something to keep an eye on.

The four main sectors that seemed to show up in my scans were the semis, ag's, oil and clothing/retail sectors. Also something new to the blog...for all you penny traders...I'm gonna do a separate pennies watch list.

LONGS

DBA-Trendline going all the way back to December of last year, nice wedge pattern, if you can grab it under 24.50 its a great buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=210451a9-2f99-481f-aa32-965f041bf6e5

MOS-Inverted head and shoulders...could turn into a channel trade...pulling back to good support, stochastics look good for a nice bounce. I think anything under 49 is a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b3225bab-09b9-46cc-91fa-3e9c929d789d

TRV-This was on my personal list last week, and would have been my #1 if I could have got it out on Sunday...but my head just hurt to bad from all the poison I drank Saturday. Anyway I still like it for a move higher.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8452be43-f04a-4ee9-a60b-20bf60e16b28

CCJ-Has it's trendline from the March lows still holding...and its sitting on it right now, stochastics pulling back, MACD pulling back...nibble at 27

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d07370ab-5d3f-4852-8e93-e5ba2417822d

JOSB-Love this one...we could have a double trend line bounce, stochastics, MACD both pulling back.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ad1b86b7-24de-4697-84a1-bb7379d68b6a

WFR-It's not ready yet...but if you can let it pull down to 16 or under I'd be all over it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6dadc69d-9b2f-4d97-a8d0-9388773cf4eb

GGG-Also like this one a lot...also not ready yet...let it come down to it's 50 EMA...then nail it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=21d5ffce-d0de-4e7d-864f-3b5b5b5e7f9f

WFT-Great channel trade happening in this one...bounced off the lower trendline today, if it pulls back to under 21 its a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e9e3148d-7ce2-42e4-a1bf-a8e90a71505a

ETE-I came up with my own pattern...I call it...the parallelogram...(this is what happens when you chart for 8 hours straight)

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=33802998-7098-4b15-b6b4-7cc5fcfa684e

AU-Channel trade anyone?

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=9697d7c8-8777-4aa8-a5e7-1156857bb8ae

LII-Another channel trade

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d5eda91a-ac8e-4ca7-98c9-903c9d524a74

TBL-Falling wedge...maybe getting ready to break out.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=01c15246-b08e-412a-845b-c37071c82793

TXRH-Like this one a lot...double trendline bounce?? If you can get it at 10...good work

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=892dab08-385a-4915-99c7-e0998e6e538b

CAKE-Rockstar channel trade if I've ever seen one

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e4d35453-ab35-4ee2-9118-bcfc278a6922

My eyes are killing me...im gonna finish tomorrow