I'll be your Golddigger

Review of today 1/5/10

2010-01-05T17:04:00.000-08:00

One of my New Years Resolutions was to get on this blog thing every night possible, Monday-Friday. I'm gonna try to get a review of what happened at the end of everyday, then in the mornings do a key levels/things to look for kind of post. So in saying that...here is today in review.

Well of course, we gapped up for like the 40th day in row...filled the gap during the opening swing...got bad news from the housing data...spiked down...then ran straight up to the highs of the day. I'm still mad at myself for missing a setup that I've seen a thousand times; pointed it out in the chart. We took out the overnight highs by like .50 or something, then price was rejected three times at the highs making a pretty easy short setup. Here it is at the top of the blog.

Interesting Day

2009-12-08T19:43:00.000-08:00

I have to admit that I was a little unprepared for the low levels that we saw in the a.m. this morning, because I shorted the near lows only to watch it go against me faster then I could get my stop in, there was also a weird volume spike at 11:11 that I think was some kind of algo which accounted for the superhuman strenght the first half of the day. But I was just trading my plan...which called for a short under 1780, which we got in the overnight session and came pretty close to my downside target I gave last night (1755).

I ended up nailing a short on the high tick of the day, a level I also talked about yesterday as a major area (1786) only to end up covering it for a pitiful 2 points. Something that I have noticed the past couple trading days is that the area of 1768-1780 is an area that the market has trouble finding value in, and when 1780 is broken to the downside, and 1768 is broken to the upside, the market wants to find value in other areas moving quickly through this gap.

Pretty much same plan tomorrow...I do think we go higher because the DX (dollar) became pretty weak at the end of the day w/ what looked like a short sqeeuze on huge volume before the end of day today. And for the most part lower prices were quickly rejected.

1092 is a key area for the ES...under it short term bearish...above short term bullish

Here is a chart for the NQ...(up above)

Again if you want you can follow me on twitter...I made you 10.50 NQ points if you shadowed me on my live calls (sad to say I didn't even net that because of my early morning losses)

alright...back to basics

2009-12-07T20:41:00.000-08:00

Ok, so I know its been like a year since my last blog post...but I've had a pretty big transformation of trading styles and trading vehicles. I pretty much only trade futures now a days...specifically the ES (S&P emini contract) and NQ (Nasdaq 100) contracts. If you are reading this and have no idea what these are, here is the Investopedia link to help you run down the basics.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/futures/

In the past months I have done this overhall of styles for a couple reasons, but mainly trying to keep adding tools to the tool box, while trying to operate under K.I.S.S....

Thanks to the internet I have had the oppertunity/luck to watch and follow some of the best and biggest traders in the world. You wouldnt believe how a big a tool things such as Twitter/other traders blogs have become for me. Up until a couple months ago before I discovered these select few traders that I followed live day after day...just cutting the market to shreds...I now feel like I was trading w/ blinder on this whole time. The gift these guys gave me was something that I had never come across in my journey to becoming a truly great trader. They showed me how the big boys look at it...how the big boys hit it perfect almost everyday, the gift of auction theory, and market profile.

Now I'm not going to go into how all that works...but these tools have truly shown me the light. I'm still fighting the learning curve, but I continue to improve everyday. My profit have slowed down quiet a bit because of the learning curve, and having to be way more patient, but I'm really starting to feel like I know exactly what the market is doing, and wants to do, and slowly my p/l is coming around as well.

I am going to start posting charts again as well...and if your on Twitter and want to follow me, as I do call out some of my high probability trades live...my handle is TRUmav. As a legal thing too...futures trading is highly leveraged, and highly risky if you dont know what you are doing, so dont do it if you cant afford to lose it.

A quick run down of key levels for NQ tomorrow:

1780 is key support...break of that would probably give 1755-1750 in the coming days...but until it really breaks, have to play bounces off it.

1786-87 is important, it also acts as support/res...the last couple selloffs have come when we have broke this area.

1791.5-92 is key...anything above this is bullish, and I only take longs. After this level, I just watch the order flow to scale out of longs, and enter shorts.

On the ES...we still need to test the big 1122 area...and I will have my short orders ready...more ES levels later

Well well well

2009-10-14T20:13:00.000-07:00

This markets ass must hurt from the beating I've been giving it...that didn't come out right...but Happy DOW 10K day!

I really hated not getting an update out yesterday...but the blog has to take a back seat during times like this...it's like I've been saying since the very first post...this is a buy the dip super bull market. Even Cramer and the people off fast money are probably doing ok. (Execpt the one jackass that continues to be short, don't really know how he still has any money but whatever)Throw a dart...everything is doing ok.

On a side note...if you look back at my rants from a couple weeks ago...you'll see my target of 1093 on the SPX was nailed on the f#$%ing dot today. I think the high for the day was 1093.17. It's amazing how support and resistance work isn't it. All you fundimental intelliletuals that call the market "a random walk"...eat my blog.

(Side, sidenote...I think we do crack 1093 tomorrow)

If we all look back and remember, mister Intel was what really kicked off this last leg up from 850 on the S&P. Everything in this market is still set to go higher, even though we have a 10% unemployment rate. The golden boy of Wall St. Goldman Sachs (pun intended) is reporting tomorrow morning, I expect nothing more then for them to blow it out. I'm loaded with calls on Goldman so I am a bit baised, but Goldman isn't going to let this market down...it's been the strongest stock in the market since July, and if they get beat down at all from earnings I'll be loading the boat. But I fully expect them at 200 or higher by weeks end. So goes Goldman, so goes the market...simple as that.

A little update on what im holding/got rid of...
Holding:
AMZN from 94...110 target
NCS from 2.77...4 target
RIMM from 65...80 target
UNH from 24.20...27 target
VZ from 28.90...31 target
WYNN from 66....70 target
XOM from 65.50...target hit probably takin if off tomorrow
C from 4.32...sold out today at 4.88
Sold INTC and CSCO at the open today
PALM is my only short at 17...probably gonna take it off tomrrow too
Holding too much Goldman probably...but I've got a nice core at 182 so Ive got some wiggle room
Also got back in one of my favorite stocks...SPG at 69...love the builders going forward.

I'm gonna try and get some charts out in the AM...I really like State Street (STT) to break out tomorrow too.

Update

2009-10-08T08:21:00.000-07:00

WYNN, just broke out! Long at 70.15 big shares...lookin for .50

I know....

2009-10-07T07:39:00.000-07:00

I know it's been a week from the last update and for that I'm sorry. I've been trading my tail off the past couple days and have taken the markets out to the wood shed. I'm gonna get straight to it today...two very easy plays...almost guarenteed...Goldman Sachs is going to 200 before they report, mark it, buy the dips or grab some 200 or 210 calls. RIMM...I've been loading the boat these past couple days and have an average of 65.45, buy this thing, and dont touch it, turn the screens off til it goes back to 80, because it is. A setup I've been looking for the past days are breakout plays...and I found a couple good ones.

One of my favorite setups this week and going forward is NCS...this thing is primed and ready. Nothing I don't like about it, easy double...just have to keep an eye on it because it pops huge but retraces pretty quickly

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6f2df996-bb93-4036-8048-bf97c1252e88

Another one I like is BMO. This thing is a loaded spring...you can wait for the breakout at 52, or get it on the lower trendline at 48ish.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c605b510-9007-4d65-badc-b64b33be1975

JBHT is also concolidating for a move higher....33.50 would be a breakout, 31.50 would be a good entry if you can get it there.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=937c248f-698c-4d63-bcdd-557d938b125b

Stocks I also still like, TXRH, HNZ, CAKE, FSS, PTR.

A couple shorts, I like DECK as a short anywhere around 85, WYNN around 75 (but if it breaks 75 cover and go long cus that will be a breakout. All the ag's have been pretty weak.

The thing I've been doing the past two weeks that have worked nicely is I'm net long (like 80%), then when I felt the market getting extended I'll take a ES short and just hold on to it to hedge myself.

Weekly watchlist for 9/28/09

2009-09-28T17:10:00.000-07:00

Hello boys and girls, another day, another dollar! Sorry for no Fryday update...I took a long weekend and only traded for 30 min Fryday. (also why I didn't get this weeks watchlist out til today)

Anyways jumping right into things...there are a lot of really good setup I ran across on my scans, so I'm just gonna post a link to most of my charts...so until I can get them to hyperlink your gonna just have to copy and paste in your browser(still kind of new to this blog thing, but I'm figuring it out). And just a side note...we've seen selling toward the end of the day the past couple days, this hasn't happened in quite some time...something to keep an eye on.

The four main sectors that seemed to show up in my scans were the semis, ag's, oil and clothing/retail sectors. Also something new to the blog...for all you penny traders...I'm gonna do a separate pennies watch list.

LONGS

DBA-Trendline going all the way back to December of last year, nice wedge pattern, if you can grab it under 24.50 its a great buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=210451a9-2f99-481f-aa32-965f041bf6e5

MOS-Inverted head and shoulders...could turn into a channel trade...pulling back to good support, stochastics look good for a nice bounce. I think anything under 49 is a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b3225bab-09b9-46cc-91fa-3e9c929d789d

TRV-This was on my personal list last week, and would have been my #1 if I could have got it out on Sunday...but my head just hurt to bad from all the poison I drank Saturday. Anyway I still like it for a move higher.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8452be43-f04a-4ee9-a60b-20bf60e16b28

CCJ-Has it's trendline from the March lows still holding...and its sitting on it right now, stochastics pulling back, MACD pulling back...nibble at 27

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d07370ab-5d3f-4852-8e93-e5ba2417822d

JOSB-Love this one...we could have a double trend line bounce, stochastics, MACD both pulling back.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ad1b86b7-24de-4697-84a1-bb7379d68b6a

WFR-It's not ready yet...but if you can let it pull down to 16 or under I'd be all over it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6dadc69d-9b2f-4d97-a8d0-9388773cf4eb

GGG-Also like this one a lot...also not ready yet...let it come down to it's 50 EMA...then nail it.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=21d5ffce-d0de-4e7d-864f-3b5b5b5e7f9f

WFT-Great channel trade happening in this one...bounced off the lower trendline today, if it pulls back to under 21 its a buy.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e9e3148d-7ce2-42e4-a1bf-a8e90a71505a

ETE-I came up with my own pattern...I call it...the parallelogram...(this is what happens when you chart for 8 hours straight)

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=33802998-7098-4b15-b6b4-7cc5fcfa684e

AU-Channel trade anyone?

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=9697d7c8-8777-4aa8-a5e7-1156857bb8ae

LII-Another channel trade

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d5eda91a-ac8e-4ca7-98c9-903c9d524a74

TBL-Falling wedge...maybe getting ready to break out.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=01c15246-b08e-412a-845b-c37071c82793

TXRH-Like this one a lot...double trendline bounce?? If you can get it at 10...good work

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=892dab08-385a-4915-99c7-e0998e6e538b

CAKE-Rockstar channel trade if I've ever seen one

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e4d35453-ab35-4ee2-9118-bcfc278a6922

My eyes are killing me...im gonna finish tomorrow

Looking at Thursday

2009-09-23T19:32:00.000-07:00

Well my friends...its days like today why you always want to have shorts and longs. The market did almost exactly what I thought it would do today...that being said...I have no clue what tomorrow has in store for us. I wouldnt be surprised to see a gap up or down...but if we do gap down (which is what I'm leaning towards) I'll be looking to fad it. We have great support at 1050, and 1039 on the SPX minis, and I'll be watching these areas close for long scalps and ES trades. I will be trading on the light side tomorrow, and probably just managing my trades im already in.

A little position update....
I added to my DE long at 45.50...still in the pattern...still love it.

Added to my PSA short at 79.20, everyone had all week to grab this one, looks good to go lower

Still short BA, not adding though

Still short SYK, didnt add

Got out of the rest on my CLX at 59 on some weight...awesome trade!!!

Still holding C...dont really like the action in it today though

Looking forward to tomorrow 9/23/09

2009-09-22T20:32:00.000-07:00

Wow what another great day in the markets!!! Can anyone believe that CLX trade? I couldn't, I guess a thank you is in order to Mr. P&G! I took half off today at 59.50 +2 on 500 shares, gonna let the rest ride til sometime tomorrow. The only other trade from the watchlist I made is I sold all my shares of DE at 47 + 2.5 only 200 shares, but I got back in at 46. Still holding everything else, I think were in some really good positions!

Tomorrow we have the FOMC meeting...my take on it...I think we drift up until the meeting, spike and take out the SPX highs, then probably sell off 10 or so points to end the day. I will probably be looking to unload some longs if we take out the highs, and grab some new shorts (half postions though). If we start to get real range bound like we did today, I'm gonna do some heavy ES trading leading up to the meeting. I will give a midday update tomorrow before the meeting.

Watchlist for the week of 9/21/09

2009-09-21T16:38:00.000-07:00

Because I felt bad for not getting my watchlist out last night...I went through the entire S&P 500 looking for good set-ups, and came across 33 that really look good to me one way or the other. We should have a "drifty" market until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, pretty similar to the day we had today. I except the SPX to drift between the 1050 to 1075 range the next two days. A little update on some of postions:

FSLR-added 50 more shares short, avg. now 155, I have a hard stop at 161 and will not move it.

ABX-covered the last half of my position at 35.75, +3.25...perfect trade

MTXX- It popped big today just like I thought it would, sold everything at 6.10, +.40, Looking to get back in around 5.70 level.

C- got back in this am, 4.30...gonna hold and see what happens

On to the watchlist....

A long that I really like this week is CLX, Clorox Co. It's got a nice falling wedge pattern, good support around the 57 area, stochastics are turning up, and MACD is going to get a bullish cross soon. I'm in it at 57.40.

A short I like is PSA, Public Storage. It has formed a nice double top in at 79.50, with stochastics turning down, and MACD is at an extreme level. I'm short at 77, target is 72, stop loss just above the highs.

Another long I like is GLW, Corning. Tech was really strong today, and this one has a great trendline going all the way back to May. If you can get this one under 15 I think its a great buy.

SYK, Stryker Corp, I like as a short, its been trading outside its top Bollinger Bands for almost two weeks, time for it to come down to Earth (just a little bit if nothing else) it's been getting some upgrades, but it just looks toppy up here, I like the back to back red chandles its printed. I'm short at 47.50, first target 45.

A long that I started to nibble on today is DE, Deere. It's made a nice inverted head and shoalders, and if it can ever get through this 47.50 area, then it's off to the races. Started half a postion at 44.50.

BA looks like a good short here, double top, been trading on its upper Bollinger Band for a couple days, stochastics are at extreme levels, looks like MACD has made a lower, low.

Sorry for no watchlist yesterday

2009-09-18T07:32:00.000-07:00

Today, Friday is options ex day, a day that I really hate to trade on...I almost never do options ex days, and if I do it's only a couple of ES trades. A little update...

PALM...what a wild ride...I did cover half my short before they reported...just covered the other half just now..at 13.80 +1.20

FSLR...I may fry in this thing, but I'm gonna hold it over the weekend, I just think there tryin to hold it up so everyone that bought puts is gettin killed.

ABX...covered half my postion at 37 for +2...great trade...gonna let the other half ride over the weekend.

Speaking of a stock that I think is being held down for options ex is MTXX. Everyone and there moms bought calls on this thing...I think there just holding it down so all those calls are out of the money...I just picked up 500 shares at 5.70...this isnt a trade for weak of heart (just like FSLR) as it could crash at any second, but I like the risk reward here, 6.50 target, gonna hold over the weekend.

Well this was a hell of a first week on the blog! Made some good money...I'll be making a big watchlist for next week on Sunday so check back then, Happy Trading!

Midday update 9/17/09

2009-09-17T09:12:00.000-07:00

Just a little update, took profits in SPG got out at 75, +9...out of RIMM at 84, +4, got in Citi this AM at 4.30, couldn't help it, had to take profits at 4.50, I'll be looking to probably re-enter on a pullback as chart is still setup nicely. I added to my ABX short at 39 again, probably gonna hold it til tomorrow,
and PALM....I just found out they report there earnings after the bell...probably gonna take half off before, hold half into earnings (which I dont recommend, because it's float is 40% short, and could fly if they beat) But its been a good week, so I like the gamble.

FSLR...got a f***ing upgrade this morning so it ripped and messed up a great short, but I'm stickin to my guns added 50 shares to my short at 156, average is 153.

CENX...ya...I dont know what to say about this one, chart was setup perfect, I am gonna start nibbling here around 11

And the Bull Rages On! Watchlist for 9/17/09

2009-09-16T15:45:00.000-07:00

As one of my trading friends likes to say, "Where did all the top calling bears go....guess the bulls ate em!" TRADE THE DAMN TREND! THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND! Such simple concepts, yet I keep seeing all these people call the top. We have new highs on the year for the 6th day in row, and we still have another 30 or so points on the SPX to go until we have any resistance. We have a big data day tomorrow morning with Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Inital Jobs Claims at 8:30, with the Philly Fed at 10. My take, if the market wants an excuss to pullback tomorrow then these numbers should do the trick, but I think if we get any tiny bit of good news out of these numbers...FORGET ABOUT IT! I could very easily see a bunch of short covering, pushing the SPX up to around the 1090 area by FRYday. And for the five people that might have read my blog yesterday, your welcome for a perfect 4 for 4 almost pinpoint perfect entry on the entire watchlist. So without further adue, the watchlist for tomorrow:

Pick #1
I always like to be hedged...so we'll start with a short, I like a FSLR (First Solar) short here, not a full postion (I shorted 50 shares at the end of the day today, and will add either way tomorrow) It has a nice downtrend line around 147, and I think all the shorts have been fried in it, so now it will probably come down. I would cover if it got through its 200 day EMA which is around 155, but the odds of that are very slim. Target for this trade is 140 area(I figured out how to get my charts on here too)

Pick #2
CHL (China Mobile) Long. This isn't a fast mover, but its got a great trendline thats its bounced on five times and it just got a bullish MACD cross today. If you can get it around the 50.50 area, it's a buy.

Pick #3
C (Citigroup) Long. I know I know, I hate this company too, but we've had a very nice pullback to it's 50 EMA, and a nice downtrend line, the closer you can grab it to 4 the better. You might have to take a little pain, but I think it goes back to 5.

Pick #4
CENX (Century Aluminum) Long. Chart says it all...bullish MACD, bullish stochastics, closed over it 200 EMA...

I'm out for now, Im gonna try to add more later, I continue to be short PALM, and ABX, will be looking to take profits in SPG, and RIMM.

P.S. Looking for a pull back in basic services across the board and possible rotation into healthcare JNJ, PFE, AMGN all long bases ready to resume.

Watchlist for Wed. Sept. 16

2009-09-15T18:15:00.000-07:00

What a market we have right now! New highs for the year on the SPX for the fifth day in row! Whats even better is that we dont really have any resistance on top of us until almost 1100, so until we get there, this is a buy the dip market! We did break a three day uptrend-line at the very end of day, and stochastics are very overbought on the hourly and daily SPX charts, but we have great support on/around 1039, so I'm looking for a pullback to this area to reenter long scalps, and adding to long swing tomorrow (but we probably wont get there, so any pullback im adding). As far as data is concerned we have the Consumer Price Index numbers coming out in the morning with market "experts" saying the core CPI will grow by .1% (which this is beyond me as to how it's going to be growing right now). Anyway for all you kids that didn't pass ECON 101, the CPI measures inflation, hence I think there could be a good trade in gold stocks tomorrow on the short side if the street doesn't like the CPI, but we'll get to that in a sec. So now for my first ever picks for tomorrow.....

-Gold futures have formed a bastard head and shoulders pattern...I like a short in gold...
Safe play: Long DGZ (double short gold future etf) around the 22 area, target 23.50
My play: Short ABX (Barrick Gold Corp) 39, target 36

-A stock I've been all over the past two months SPG (Simon Property Group) has just been on fire! This guy is in buy the dip mode, if it can pull back to anywhere around it's 20 ema, I'll be all over it

-PALM...what a turd of a company...the short on this one is kind of a crowded trade, but its got a very nice downtrend line that it tagged today on the heals of an upgrade (classic analysis that probably chased it and now trying to get out of it), if you can short it around the 15 area I think this is easy money

-RIMM...what a great company...it broke out of a B-E-A-UTIFUL wedge pattern last week...and I think it's going higher. It ran into earnings last quarter, it's doing it again, a no doubt buy the dip this week. 90 target

For all you ES traders out there...my go-to play the past couple weeks has been to fade whatever the street's knee jerk reaction is to data, so If we pop on the CPI numbers...let it run 4-5 candles, then short, just make sure you cover before the open or you could fry, same play visa-versa.

Well the PM stuff is kicking in so I'm calling it night, and first post. Lets ride this BULL!! (market)